The LDP’s latest leadership race was certainly a wild one (Did you expect it to be anything else?).
A record nine candidates threw their hats in the ring, with Sanae Takaichi not only becoming the first woman to make it to the run-offs, but also securing the most votes in the first round [source:1]. Yet, you’d hardly know Japan was facing a political existential crisis if you were following Western media. Neither the leadership race, the slush-fund scandal that triggered it, nor the election of the eventual new Prime Minister—seasoned LDP veteran Shigeru Ishiba—received much attention. It's not like Japan’s the world’s fourth-largest economy or anything...
There’s a fair bit of uncertainty around how the newbie* will fare, but for anyone even remotely familiar with Japanese politics, this is all starting to feel a bit too familiar
One of the things that surprises people most when I talk about Japan is how chaotic and inefficient its political system really is.
Despite the sleek, highly organized, and efficient image most have of Japanese society, there’s almost always a scandal or minor political upheaval bubbling in the background. Japan’s prime ministers rotate in and out at an astonishing rate; since the end of occupation in 1947, there have been 57 prime ministers, the shortest being Tsutomu Hata, who served just 64 days in 1994. He probably didn’t even have time to unpack!
In fact, over that same period, only six prime ministers have managed to serve as long as the typical four-year US presidential term, with the average sitting comfortably at around two years.
And yet, throughout all this turnover, the LDP has essentially ruled Japan for nearly the entire time, with only two brief interruptions in 1993-94 and 2009-12 [note:1]. With one party holding power for so long, it’s no surprise that the same names keep popping up again and again…
On the surface, Shigeru Ishiba—a five-time LDP leadership candidate and son of former Tottori Governor Jirō Ishiba—seems like a reasonably solid choice.
He’s spoken in favour of lowering working hours [source:2], supports introducing a selective dual surname system that would allow married couples the option to retain their respective surnames [source:3], and has expressed his backing for the legalization of same-sex marriage nationwide [source:4]. He even appears to be taking a refreshingly softer approach to Japan’s wartime crimes than his predecessors, acknowledging that the root of many issues between Japan and South Korea lies in Japan's failure to confront its wartime responsibilities [source:5].
All these are admittedly a huge step forward for a country which remains as socially conservative and anchored to its past as Japan. But all of that becomes significantly less noteworthy when you consider that most of these ideas have long been popular among the Japanese public. Indeed, there has long been a huge disconnect between what the Japanese people want, and the government is willing to provide [source:6]. There’s a reason why, for much of his tenure, Fumio Kishida trailed in the polls behind some lad named “no preference”.
However, having a closer look at Ishiba, we can see that there’s not a huge amount behind what he says, or does… He doesn’t really appear to have much of a mandate, and even less reasoning behind what he DOES have. He’s fairly keen on proposing an idea for an Asian NATO (sans China, of course), which would’ve already been a tough sell for a country famously without an army, if the U.S. hadn’t already shot it down for being “too hasty.” [source:7]
He’s also an active member of the Nippon Kaigi, an ultra-conservative and far right leaning political think-tank turned lobbyist group [source:8]. This association would be a cause for concern in basically any other country, but with close to 40,000 active members (including basically all the former contemporary prime ministers and high-ranking LDP politicians), it would be more unusual if he wasn’t a member.
Among its stated goals, Nippon Kaigi is committed to maintaining Japanese identity and sovereignty, actively campaigning to revise Japan’s contemptuous imperial past and seeking to alter its constitution to remove the dreaded Article 9, which forbids Japan from maintaining a standing army. Honestly, sounds like pretty typical LDP stuff...
To top it off, Ishiba carries the blessing of Kakuei Tanaka, Japan’s so-called "shadow shogun" and one of the most infamous prime ministers in Japanese history [note:2]. Tanaka's corruption and influence helped lay the groundwork for the current culture within the LDP and the broader Japanese political sphere. His father, Jirō, like many politicians of that era, was particularly close to Tanaka—so much so that Tanaka would later serve as the chairman of his funeral committee, ultimately encouraging Ishiba to enter politics to carry on his father’s legacy at the tender age of 29 [source:9]. A quintessentially Tanaka move!
So, taking all this into account, what will happen next? Certifiably predicting where Ishiba's term will go is difficult, but the signs are far from promising…
Japanese politics are frustratingly predictable. With the same party effectively in power for the past 80 years, we have a fair bit to draw from. Right from the get-go, Ishiba declared that his cabinet would be composed of members unaffiliated with LDP internal factions, such as Shinzō Abe’s Seiwa Kai, effectively distancing himself from party heavyweights. This is a bold move, particularly in a time when any association with controversial factions (and the Unification Church, while we’re at it) is considered political suicide, and is very good for optics. Internal LDP politics have long been dictated by factionalism and back-scratching, and despite being bruised by repeated scandals, the party remains deeply divided along these lines. This does not bode well for the stability and longevity of Ishiba’s reign, as these factions are crucial for obtaining (and maintaining) wider party support.
Also, Ishiba isn’t exactly what many of the LDP’s rank-and-file members would consider a loyal member. He has dirtied his bib considerably—not only by calling for former PM Kishida to resign, but also for his desertion from the LDP in the mid-90s to join the short-lived Japan Renewal Party, and later the New Frontier Party (He eventually returned in 1998 as if nothing had happened) [source:10]. Furthermore, he engages in quite a bit of anti-faction pontificating for someone who launched his own faction in 2015 in an attempt to oust then Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, although he ultimately failed to garner the required number of supporters to make a serious leadership bid [source:11]. His hastily announced snap election for the end of this month also does **not **seem to be going down well within the party… [source:12]
To me, Japanese politics often feels like a cross between a circus and a 90s teen sitcom set in an American high school. It’s a chaotic popularity contest where politicians manoeuvre between factions, backstab, brown-nose, and make calculated leadership bids, only to split off into new parties—all in an effort to maintain their relevance. Rise and repeat.
Ishiba himself has made five leadership attempts, which could be seen as a sign of desperation. In reality, this is a common strategy in Japan, where maintaining political clout often means persistently vying for leadership, even if real and lasting power remains firmly out of reach.
My take on this latest series in a show that has long overstayed its welcome is that it’s not a case of “if,” but rather “when.”
In regard to politics (and honestly, probably everything else...), the Japanese public are currently hovering somewhere between chronically apathetic and royally pissed off. The volatile economic situation, cost of living crisis, and impending demographic disaster only exacerbate the situation. Ishiba’s reign will likely be relatively short, around 1 to 1.5 years, destined to join the long Wikipedia page of meddling Japanese prime ministers alongside Yasuo Fukuda, Naoto Kan, and Yoshirō Mori (You had to look them up, didn’t you?).
The more interesting question is who will eventually replace him and under what circumstances. An ideal scenario would involve the opposition parties stopping their infighting and splitting, allowing them to establish a firm base and gradually grow into a competent and challenging force capable of providing some relief and alternatives to nearly 80 years of LDP rule. But this seems highly unlikely, especially right now.
A more realistic—and perhaps “better”—scenario, when we inevitably find ourselves back where we are in two years, is that Shinjirō Koizumi probably wouldn't be a terrible choice. He was flagged early in this race as a contender and is considered a "rising star" in the LDP (He comes from a heavily political family, because of course he does...). Having a sub-60-year-old PM would be refreshing for Japan, and he leans a bit more international and socially liberal than others. However, he would likely face the same challenges.
Ultimately, a young PM could be criticized for a lack of experience, but his strong right-wing ties might earn him some leniency.It's probably best right now not to get too emotionally attached to Mr. Ishiba—not that other world leaders are overly enthused about him, either. We should temper our expectations and not get our hopes up for any significant changes that could pull Japan out of its slump just yet.
The Japanese political landscape may be chaotic, but one thing is for certain: the more things change, the more they stay the same....