They often say only three things in life are certain: death, taxes, and the quirkification of Japan. In the wake of Sanae Takaichi's victory in the LDP's leadership race[note:1], Western media outlets have, once again, demonstrated their seemingly incessant need to simplify Japan into a mindless, orientalist spectacle. As if Japan's first female prime minister wasn't notable enough in itself, there's been a baffling fixation on Takaichi's fondness for drumming and heavy metal [note:2], which evidently matters more than her ultra-conservative politics, endorsement of Japan's toxic work culture, and ready willingness to make a few trips down to Yasukuni Shrine. Don't even get me started on the Thatcher comparisons…
I don't want to detract from how significant it is for the women of Japan to have their first female leader. In a stringently patriarchal society where any form of upward mobility is incredibly challenging for women, Takaichi's ascension from humble Nara politician to the prime minister's office is a colossal step forward for the nation with the lowest rate of female political participation in the G7 (and the G20… [note:3]) [source:1]. Yet by getting caught up in the hype and trivialities of the situation, along with the largely irrelevant quirks of the person at the heart of it, I feel it's very easy to overlook how significant a moment this may be for Japan going forward. And not entirely for the ways most people may be thinking.
On the face of it, Takaichi's victory appears to be a pretty significant change of course for a male-dominated, politically stagnant, contemporary Japan. It represents what a lot of western observers may consider a progressive leap forward for a nation which has long appeared to be terminally trapped in the past. However, putting aside for a second the fact that having a female head of state doesn't instantly make things better or the nation more progressive [note:4 See Also: The UK], her ascension comes at a time when the Japanese political establishment faces arguably its most comprehensive shakeup in its 80+ years as a democracy.
For most foreign observers and tourists alike, it's difficult to truly grasp just how bad things are for the average person in Japan right now. Alongside the well-documented, persisting woes of a stubbornly stagnant economy, rural depopulation, and a looming demographic crisis, Japan is facing a severe cost of living crisis, which has driven up inflation for the first time in nearly two decades, causing prices to rise sharply. The post-COVID tourism boom and a historically weak yen have also left the country drowning in more tourists than it can handle. Japanese infrastructure (and hospitality) simply hasn't been able to keep up with the 30+ million foreign guests the country has seen in the first nine months of this year alone. [source:2]
This is all without even addressing the precarious political situation which has been unravelling for the past few years. The LDP has long drawn ire for its near-total control over the political establishment, much to the dismay of the largely fractious opposition and a significant chunk of the population [source:3]. It's not easy at the top, especially if you've been there for over seventy years at a go. [note:4]
But things seem noticeably different this time around. Never has there been a time when the LDP has been both deeply unpopular with the public and virtually toxic to the broader political establishment. Successive scandals and a revolving door of prime ministers have only compounded a sense of fatigue that things haven't noticeably changed despite the numerous leadership changes. This has prompted Komeito, a steadfast supporter of the LDP through even its most tricky periods, to make a dramatic break, not only withdrawing from the ruling coalition entirely, but also mulling collaboration with opposition forces to pursue a new mandate for government [source:4] [note:5]. This all comes at a time when Japan's far-right have begun seizing on the populist, Trumpist methods that other right-wing parties across the world have had great success with. Xenophobia towards foreign residents has rapidly increased this year alone, in no small part because of overtourism and acute labour shortages which have pushed the topic further into the mainstream consciousness. Sanseito has been quick to capitalise on this discontent, becoming not only the second most popular party in Japan, but potentially a key force within future opposition governments, if they play their cards right.
After some setbacks and a bit of faffing around, the 21st of October seems like it'll be the day the new Prime Minister is voted in. [source:5]
Though with the LDP currently having a minority in parliament and opposition parties considering fielding a joint candidate to challenge the position, it's genuinely anyone's guess which way this may all turn out. The CDP, currently the second largest party in the Diet, have mentioned that they could be tempted to back Takaichi, but will likely have a laundry list of demands and concessions in doing so. [source:6] This would leave an already mortally wounded LDP open to even more potshots, putting more pressure on its ability to hold onto its rapidly disillusioned voter base and potentially conceding even more ground to the far right. But even if Takaichi somehow manages to eke out a majority, she'll be in for an ungodly mess from day one that may be a lot trickier to fix.
In lieu of any coalition partners, Takaichi would be leading an incredibly precarious, and potentially short-lived, minority government. To cling onto power, the LDP would need to massively shore up support from smaller parties and rely on the good graces of whatever independents will entertain them. Though with Komeito out, they're not exactly flush with options.
Takaichi has previously expressed willingness to cooperate with the DPFP, Japan's fourth largest party and a key oppositional force. However, this may be a lost cause, since the DPFP have repeatedly stated they would not only reject any collaboration with any LDP-led coalition, but they'd also cooperate with other parties to ensure the LDP remains in minority, regardless of policy or ideology. They've also been the key force behind pushing a candidate to challenge Takaichi's appointment, with leader Yuichiro Tamaki being their potential challenger. [source:7]
When I wrote my first draft of this article, I mentioned that the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin no Kai) were another potential, though equally unlikely, partner. My reasoning was that, although the parties are broadly ideologically aligned, Ishin have grown a loyal stronghold in Kansai and built their entire identity on being not just an alternative to the LDP, but on a broader sense, to "ruling Tokyo elites". I mentioned that Ishin entering into a partnership with the LDP would require some massive concessions and could potentially destroy the party, given its staunchly anti-establishment stance.
However, much to my utter bemusement, it seems Ishin have rather quickly warmed up to the prospect of entertaining a partnership, if it proves politically advantageous, of course! I suppose this just highlights the absolute insanity of the current Japanese political climate, though maybe it wasn't completely out of left field as the two parties have tentatively exchanged support in the past.
Ultimately, it's become increasingly apparent that the LDP's inaction on pressing social and economic issues, along with their hegemony in the Japanese political world, are more of a problem than the system itself. In a country where things seemingly never change, it's becoming clear that maybe things won't stay that way for much longer.
Takaichi has already announced that her deputy will be former Prime Minister and resident ghoul Taro Aso, a very clear signal that it’s business as usual. [source:8] With LDP cronyism being at the centre of this latest upheaval, I'm not too sure the party has the self-awareness or introspection to realise the writing may finally be on the wall. It seems possible that this could be one scandal too many, one election too far, and one failed prime minister past the point of no return, though we’ve been down this path before.
With things so legitimately uncertain, it's hard to make any solid predictions (especially given some of my own were already challenged while writing this article!). If I were to dare, I'd say we could be facing down the barrel of another general election, though recent polling doesn't exactly inspire confidence in any meaningful change. A complete flip in the balance of power is possible, it's happened before (albeit only twice…). But I’d temper my expectations and wouldn't expect any miracles, and certainly not the kind that Western media seem to think Japan's first female prime minister will automatically deliver.