Who said Japanese politics weren't exciting? [note:1] After what has been an utterly exhausting and surreal twelve months (not just for Japan but the rest of us too), Ishiba announced at a press conference this past Sunday, September 7th, that he would be resigning as both Prime Minister and leader of the LDP. Western media barely covered it, though in fairness it was a weekend, and the VMAs were on…
So where did it all go wrong? To be honest, a better question would probably be; Did it ever even go right in the first place?
Ishiba came to power in the midst of yet another LDP financial scandal. His path to the top was agonisingly long in the making, and bafflingly unlikely in hindsight. First elected to the House in 1986, he briefly defected to the Renewal Party in 1993 before returning to the LDP in 1997 [source:1]. He later bounced between a number of ministerial positions and ran in nearly every leadership race since 2008 before his big break finally came in 2024. Suffice to say, foreign reports of "Ishibamania" were greatly exaggerated [note:2]. A relatively unpopular and unconventional outsider, he was pitched as a reformer and somewhat of a departure from the old guard. However, these sentiments weren't exactly shared with the rest of the Japanese political establishment, as markets flinched shortly after he assumed power [source:2].
What followed was an absolutely catastrophic snap election, where the LDP and its steadfast coalition partners Komeito lost their ruling majority for the first time since 2009. After bumbling through Trump's election victory and facing general instability both within the LDP and the opposition, there was yet another, albeit even more devastating, house election which opened the door for arguably the most significant threat to the LDP's near 70-year run of electoral dominance. Sanseito, a new, more extreme, and chronically online political party, surged in the polls, shoring up support in the LDP's historically secure heartlands and becoming Japan's second-largest party in recent surveying.
At this stage, the writing was well and truly on the wall. But it would take another few months (and a bit of coaxing by Taro Aso, among other LDP elders [note:3][source:3]) before Ishiba's fate was sealed. In his resignation speech, Ishiba stated he had wanted to finish trade disputes with the US first [source:4], pledging his commitment to the Japanese people, who I'm sure are beside themselves over the prospect of having to go back to the polls for the fifth time in as many years.
I’m not overly surprised about Ishiba’s resignation, I literally mentioned it in my post last year covering his election [note:4]. However, the Japan he's leaving behind, and indeed the rest of the world, looks vastly different from the one he inherited just twelve months ago.
Domestically, this most recent unravelling of the LDP could not have come at a worse time. After burning through prime ministers at a rate of nearly one per year since 2020, the LDP will be under even more pressure to prove to an increasingly apathetic populace that they can lead. But this isn't the typical LDP grumble fest, rinse and repeat most people are used to. Japan's political landscape has been completely flipped on its head in a staggeringly short period of time, and the established rules may no longer apply.
Predictably, the eternally fractured opposition won't pose much of a threat to the LDP's dominance. Between opposing coalition strategies, conflicting visions over collaboration and policy, and leadership disputes within the CDP, it's business as usual [source:5]. Rather, it's Sanseito that's quite literally coming for their lunch, having recently surpassed the DPP as Japan's second-largest party. Ishiba's resignation has given the radical upstart an open goal, bolstering its assertions that the Japanese political institution needs change. Again, this wouldn't normally be much cause for concern, but just this year, Sanseito has proven it can effectively mobilise a long-dormant section of the voting populace and capitalise on their long-held grievances about Japan's weak yen and unsustainably high tourism. My previous article goes into a lot more detail, if you're curious about learning what they're all about.
But Japan's woes extend much further beyond its borders. In the space of just one prime minister term, the entire world order has similarly been flipped on its head. Regionally, China has cosied right up to Russia in what's become an increasingly emboldened, and outwardly antagonistic, alliance. Just last week, Putin, Xi, and Kim appeared together for the first time at a Chinese military parade marking the 80th anniversary of Japan's surrender, cementing North Korea's staggering transformation from globally renowned rogue loner to a fully legitimised ally [source:6].
This is all without even touching upon the untold destruction and uncertainty Trump's second term has unleashed on the world. Japan was hit with 24% tariffs on liberation day, with 15% being placed on car exports specifically. Ishiba claimed he wanted to stay in power long enough to complete a trade deal, but that seemingly hasn't materialised, despite his insistence [source:7].
There have been assertions within the Japanese government that good progress has been made on more comprehensive trade negotiations, and that any existing agreements will still hold up, even in the face of Ishiba's resignation. But, to be honest, I'm not so sure. The current Trump administration has shown no mercy regarding tariffs and trade talks. Between the constant flip-flopping on rates and endless extensions, with negotiations seemingly changing daily on a whim, the US is proving far less consistent than Japan needs right now, and they likely already know it. These recent developments in Japan expose a vulnerability Trump will likely seek to exploit, resulting in more tariffs (and headaches) for whoever comes next.
This all begs the question: what happens now?
The LDP has already opened the floor for candidates, with October 4th set as the date for the leadership election. But we may be in for a little bit of déjà vu…
Just as with last year's election, both Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi have quickly emerged as the frontrunners [source:8]. There's been quite a lot of chatter in Western media, both previously and this time around, about Sanae Takaichi, a longtime LDP backbencher and former Minister of State for Economic Security [note:5]. Like Ishiba, she followed a somewhat opportunistic path to the LDP. First elected to the House in 1993 as an independent, she joined the New Frontier Party in 1996 before unceremoniously jumping ship to the LDP just two months after being elected. If elected, the Nara native would become Japan's first female prime minister, a pretty big deal in itself and the angle most outlets seem eager to highlight.
More diverse representation within Japanese politics is sorely needed, with the country currently having among the lowest percentages of women in national parliament [source:9]. However, there's some nuance with Takaichi that I feel many Western outlets are overlooking. She's become very well known over her time in office for her conservative and right-leaning stances, including opposition to same-sex marriage and a focus on traditional values. Her views aren't overly controversial, especially within the realm of Japanese politics, but I definitely feel all this excitement might be a slight bit premature and misguided. Crucially, it also skips over a fairly big caveat: it's not the Japanese public who picks the LDP leader, it's the LDP membership themselves [note:6], making her campaign a bit of an uphill battle. She did come first in the first round of last year's leadership election, so stranger things have happened.
In my post from last year, I actually mentioned that Koizumi would be the most likely and "better" successor, [note:7] and this wasn't completely without reason. Recently appointed Minister of Agriculture and son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, he has quickly become something of an LDP starlet. At 44, he would become the youngest Prime Minister in Japanese history, [note:8] and is considerably more agile and media-savvy than most LDP members. Despite his relative inexperience (he succeeded his father into politics only in 2009), Koizumi represents a fairly safe bet as far as the political establishment is concerned. But he could also be a very strategically smart choice who might help Japan (and the LDP by extension) navigate the choppy waters ahead.
Since Trump's re-election, many countries have been scrambling to figure out the most effective method of getting some consistency and semblance of stability from the notoriously disagreeable (though very easily flattered) president. One thing that's become very apparent is that younger, more conservative leaning leaders seem to be doing particularly well at massaging Trump’s ego. One prime example is Giorgia Meloni, Italy's young and staunchly populist right-winger often considered one of Trump's favourites in Europe, who has proven particularly adept at "Trump whispering” (much to the relief of the rest of the EU).
Koizumi could slide into this role incredibly easily. He's young, conservative, and US-educated, the exact characteristics that could endear him to Trump. Japan desperately needs a win in this regard, and having a leader who can successfully navigate Trump's highly changeable personality, particularly against the backdrop of worrying geopolitical developments, could massively come in clutch for Japan's (and the LDP's) long-term survival.
Right now, the political situation in Japan seems even more up in the air than usual. With more LDP bigwigs throwing their hats in the ring, it’s far too early to call who’ll take the premiership. Though one thing’s for certain: whoever it is will have a fair bit on their plate. Short-term issues like rising inflation, a gradually weakening yen, and mounting public dissatisfaction with the LDP are piling up. Meanwhile, the even more pressing long-term problems of demographic collapse and labour shortages remain on the to-do pile, all while Sanseito barks at the door.
It’s not a great time to be a Japanese Prime Minister. Then again, when is it ever really?